This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week. Currently Trade View is light Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4792
The ASX attempted another rally early last week and successfully broke through the important level of 4719 and reached a high of 4853.
If this up move continues then we would like to see the level 4840 broken again as confirmation, and if it does close above 4903 then we could be in for a new uptrend forming.
If a down move is to be seen, then a fall below 4719 could see 4636 being reached before 4582. If 4582 does not hold then 4417 could be the next possible target.
EUROPE
FTSE – 6210
The FTSE made a break past 6080 early last week reaching a low of 6002, but soon after, a bounce of 200+ points followed which may indicate an over extended move.
If this is the start of a new upmove then current levels must hold and a break above 6237, followed by 6263 and 6306 need to occur with solid momentum.
If the down move takes another leg down, then 6080 needs to be broken with solid momentum. Our downside targets are dependant on the speed of acceleration and once 6080 is broken, then the levels we will be looking at for support are 5922, 5886 and 5814.
DAX – 7936
The DAX started the week with another aggressive down move but seemingly found support at the 7955 area which technically shows no relevance. The rally that followed was strong enough to reach a high of 8040.
If this current up move is to continue then a solid move past 8003 needs to occur early before making an attempt at 8131 and then possibly 8292.
If 8003 is not broken and becomes a solid level of resistance, then any aggressive down moves could see 7584 being reached quickly. If no support is found then 7435 could be less ambitious as first thought.
US
S&P – 1603
The S&P’s 40 point swings indicate some tough times ahead, and if we don’t see stabilisation in the markets soon then get ready for more whipsaw action.
If this upmove has any strength behind it then we need to see an early solid break past 1611 and 1638 this week before the longer term uptrend can continue towards new highs. As we mentioned last week, an upward attempt without strength will be short lived.
For the continuation of the down move to continue then 1611 needs to become a level of solid resistance before 1569 is reached and then eventually 1547.
NASDAQ – 2905
The NASDAQ might be looking to lead the move forward in these markets as it has closed above an important level of 2891.
If this up move is to continue then we would like to see 2920 broken followed by a solid move above 2938. This level needs to become support before another attempt at 3000 is made.
If a down move takes place then 2891 needs to be broken early in the week with solid momentum before reaching 2839 on its way down towards a possible target of 2784.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 9132
The AUD is only 132 points away from changing its big figure from a 9 to an 8.
If the continuation of this down move is to occur and a break below 9000 is made with solid momentum then we could be looking at 8780 as the next level.
If the AUD somehow finds buyers then we will stick with our call that 9325 needs to be broken before seeing 9580 again.
EUR.USD – 13007
Last week the EUR continued its move down by breaking through and important level of 13084 which was a potential level of support.
If the down move is to continue again this week then a solid move past 12974 could see 12837 and possibly 12770.
If a break back above 13084 area then a move back towards 13176 and 13227 is possible.
GBP.USD – 15210
The GBP’s down move accelerated last week and reached a low of 15165 which was just 20 points lower than our target of 15185.
If this down move continues then we would like to see 15185 broken again with some solid momentum before 15008 is reached.
If 15185 has provided enough support for a move back up from here then our next target is 15378 followed by 15421.
USD.JPY – 9912
The USDJPY consolidated at the start of the week but then made a move higher and closed above an important level of 9864.
If the up move is to continue and 9864 holds as a key level of support then we would like to see 100 broken with solid up bars, and if we have a strong momentum then we would look for 10141.
If we see a reversal and a break below both 9864 and 9810 within the same day, then we could see 9716 reached on the way down to 9506.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1234
GOLD made another 100+ point down move last week and shows no sign of slowing down.
If the down move is to continue this week in the same fashion as last week, then no downside targets will be attempted.
If GOLD buyers are reading this report then a break past 1321 needs to occur before a new attempt at an up move is made.
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 9641
LIGHT CRUDE is clearly range trading at the moment and any attempt at a break on the upside is met with a solid move back down and vise versa. Last week our target of 9742 was reached before closing 100 points lower.
If the current up move is to continue then 9742 needs to break again before reaching 9946.
If a down move has started then we would look at 9486 for potential support otherwise back to an old level of 9347.
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