This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7592 (+102 or +1.36%)
The ASX is sitting at its all time high resistance level. Will we see a breakthrough of this level?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7612. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7637, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7666 and potentially 7735.
If we cannot close above 7571, we could see a move back to test 7546 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7517, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7448.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 16916 (+312 or +1.88%)
The DAX is holding above its all time highs, will the momentum continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:30 – EUR GDP Growth Rate
Wed 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thur 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Thur 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 16960. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17052, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17145 and potentially 17292.
If we cannot close above 16921, we could see a move back to test 16829 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 16736, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 16569.
US
S&P 500 – 4881 (+178 or +3.78%)
The SPX500 has made all time highs continuing its upward momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thur 06:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4715. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4740, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4767 and potentially 4815.
If we cannot close above 4680, we could see a move back to test 4655 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4627, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4578.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6574(-139 or -2.07%)
Coming into a busy news week will AUDUSD find its ground or continue with the downward momentum?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
Thur 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thur 06:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6590. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6621, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6653 and potentially 0.6728.
If we cannot close above 0.6560, we could see a move back to test 0.6530 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6499, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6508.
EUR/USD – 1.0843 (-93 or -0.85%)
EURUSD is currently moving down following the current USD trends.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:30 – EUR GDP Growth Rate
Wed 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thur 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Thur 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Thur 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thur 06:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0872. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0901, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0930 and potentially 1.0993.
If we cannot close above 1.0814, we could see a move back to test 1.0785 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0756, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0814.
GBP/USD – 1.2695 (-14 or -0.11%)
GBPUSD has formed a resistance level at 1.28.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thur 06:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2729. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2774, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2819 and potentially 1.2894.
If we cannot close above 1.2662, we could see a move back to test 1.2617 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2572, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2647.
USD/JPY – 148.13 (+336 or +2.32%)
USDJPY has recovered from its December drop.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thur 06:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 148.47. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.95, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 149.42 and potentially 150.26.
If we cannot close above 147.79, we could see a move back to test 147.34 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.90, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.81.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2021 (-23 or -1.13%)
Gold is finding support after a volatile week..
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2026. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2031, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2036 and potentially 2044.
If we cannot close above 2016, we could see a move back to test 2011 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2004, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1994.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 42031 (-1726 or -3.94%)
BTCUSD has found support at 40,000.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 42133. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 42265, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 42498 and potentially 42879.
If we cannot close above 41929, we could see a move back to test 41797 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 41665, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 41284.
