This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7650 (-23 or -0.3%)
The AU200 has found resistance at its all time highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Fri 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7830. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7965, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8099 and potentially 8339.
If we cannot close above 7466, we could see a move back to test 7331 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7196, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6936.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 17401(+336 or +1.97%)
The DAX is up 2% over the past week, showing a big breakout above it’s all time high area.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Fri 21:00 – EUR CPI
Fri 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17844. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18607, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19371 and potentially 21513.
If we cannot close above 16958, we could see a move back to test 16195 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15431, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 13589.
US
S&P 500 – 5085 (+86 or +1.72%)
After breaking the milestone level of $5,000 the US500 has seen a breakout.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance
Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5201. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5338, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5475 and potentially 5644.
If we cannot close above 4974, we could see a move back to test 4847 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4710, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4473.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6563(+31 or +0.47%)
With high impact news for USD this week, will the AUDUSD hold its ground?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Fri 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance
Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.658. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.662, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.665 and potentially 0.673.
If we cannot close above 0.654, we could see a move back to test 0.650 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.645, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.638.
EUR/USD – 1.0818 (+39 or +0.36%)
EURUSD is slightly up for the past week with a notable rejection on Thursday. Will the Bears be able to continue the move?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Fri 21:00 – EUR CPI
Fri 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance
Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.084. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.087, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.090 and potentially 1.097.
If we cannot close above 1.079, we could see a move back to test 1.074 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.069, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.062.
GBP/USD – 1.2670 (+67 or +0.53%)
GBPUSD has formed an interesting flat resistance area at 1.280. Will this level hold the line?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 20:30 – GBP Manufacturing PMI
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance
Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2700. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2740, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2790 and potentially 1.2880.
If we cannot close above 1.2630, we could see a move back to test 1.2580 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2510, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2370.
USD/JPY – 150.45 (+40 or +0.27%)
USDJPY is moving higher each week, will the momentum break into multi year highs?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – JPY Inflation Rate
Fir 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance
Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 154. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160 and potentially 166.
If we cannot close above 147, we could see a move back to test 144 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 141, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 135.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2035 (+22 or +1.09%)
Gold is holding above the $2,000 level.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2085. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2135, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2185 and potentially 2285.
If we cannot close above 1985, we could see a move back to test 1935 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1885, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1785.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 51860 (-420 or -0.8%)
Bitcoin is slightly down this week while holding above the $50,000 level.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 53245. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 54730, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 56215 and potentially 58475.
If we cannot close above 50475, we could see a move back to test 48990 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 47505, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 45045.
