Market Brief


Are geopolitical tensions starting to reshape broader market sentiment?

Could higher energy prices and shifting risk appetite drive a larger move across equities, currencies and commodities?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –   9094  (-135 or -1.46%)

The ASX moved lower this week, falling -1.46% and showing bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9117. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9139, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9162 and potentially 9208.

If we cannot close above 9071, we could see a move back to test 9049 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 9026, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8980.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 26487  (+200 or +0.76%)

The DAX moved higher this week with a +0.76% gain, showing steady bullish momentum and continued strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 19:00 – CPI (EUR)

Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 26553. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 26619, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 26686 and potentially 26818.

If we cannot close above 26421, we could see a move back to test 26355 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 26288, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 26156.

US

S&P 500 –  7786  (+40 or +0.52%)

The SPX moved higher this week with a +0.52% gain, maintaining positive momentum and a steady bullish trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7805. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7825, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7844 and potentially 7883.

If we cannot close above 7767, we could see a move back to test 7747 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7728, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7689.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7095 (+34 or +0.48%)

AUDUSD moved higher this week with a +0.48% gain, showing steady bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7113. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7130, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7148 and potentially 0.7184.

If we cannot close above 0.7077, we could see a move back to test 0.7060 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7042, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7006.

EUR/USD –  1.1581 (+27 or +0.23%)

EURUSD edged higher this week with a +0.23% gain, maintaining a modest bullish trend and positive momentum. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 19:00 – CPI (EUR)

Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1610. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1639, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1668 and potentially 1.1726.

If we cannot close above 1.1552, we could see a move back to test 1.1523 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1494, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1436.

GBP/USD – 1.3553 (+66 or +0.49%)

GBPUSD moved higher this week with a +0.49% gain, showing positive momentum and continued bullish strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 16:00 – Employment Change (GBP)

Wed 16:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales MoM (GBP) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3587. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3621, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3655 and potentially 1.3722.

If we cannot close above 1.3519, we could see a move back to test 1.3485 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3451, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3384.


USD/JPY –  159.09 (+97 or +0.61%)

USDJPY moved higher this week with a +0.61% gain, maintaining bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 09:50 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (JPY)

Thu 09:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.47. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.87, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.26 and potentially 161.06.

If we cannot close above 158.67, we could see a move back to test 158.27 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 157.88, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 157.08.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4394  (+71 or +1.64%)

Gold surged higher this week with a strong +1.64% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued buying strength. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4405. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4416, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4427 and potentially 4449.

If we cannot close above 4383, we could see a move back to test 4372 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4361, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4339.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  63053 (-1863 or -2.87%)

Bitcoin moved sharply lower this week, falling -2.87% and showing clear bearish momentum compared with last week. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63211. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 63368, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 63526 and potentially 63841.

If we cannot close above 62895, we could see a move back to test 62738 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 62580, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62265.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.