Market Brief


Can falling oil prices ease inflation concerns and support a recovery across the SPX and DAX?

Will ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty over global energy supplies keep market volatility elevated?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8808  (+30 or +0.34%)

The ASX edged higher this week with a modest +0.34% gain, showing steady bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:05 – RBA Kent Speech (AUD)

Tue 09:50 – RBA Connolly Speech (AUD)

Wed 09:30 – RBA Hauser Speech (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8830. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8852, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8874 and potentially 8918.

If we cannot close above 8786, we could see a move back to test 8764 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8742, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8698.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25542 (+295 or +1.17%)

The DAX surged higher this week with a strong +1.17% gain, showing clear bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Thu 03:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)

Thu 15:30 – Consumer Confidence (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25606. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25670, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25734 and potentially 25861.

If we cannot close above 25478, we could see a move back to test 25414 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25350, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25223.

US

S&P 500 –  7697  (-134 or -1.71%)

The SPX moved lower this week, falling -1.71% and showing weakening bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 23:30 – Building Permits (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 01:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7716. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7735, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7755 and potentially 7793.

If we cannot close above 7678, we could see a move back to test 7659 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7639, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7601.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.6966 (-26 or -0.37%)

AUDUSD moved lower this week, posting a -0.37% decline and showing mild bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:05 – RBA Kent Speech (AUD)

Tue 09:50 – RBA Connolly Speech (AUD)

Wed 09:30 – RBA Hauser Speech (AUD)

Tue 23:30 – Building Permits (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 01:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6983. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7001, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7018 and potentially 0.7053.

If we cannot close above 0.6949, we could see a move back to test 0.6931 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6914, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6879.

EUR/USD – 1.1225 (+9 or +0.08%)

EURUSD edged higher this week with a slight +0.08% gain, showing stable bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 20:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Thu 03:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)

Thu 15:30 – Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Tue 23:30 – Building Permits (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 01:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1253. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1281, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1309 and potentially 1.1365.

If we cannot close above 1.1197, we could see a move back to test 1.1169 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1141, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1085.

GBP/USD –  1.3328 (+77 or +0.58%)

GBPUSD pushed higher this week with a solid +0.58% gain, showing bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 17:00 – Unemployment Rate (GBP)

Wed 17:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (GBP)

Fri 17:00 – Retail Sales MoM (GBP)

Tue 23:30 – Building Permits (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 01:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3361. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3395, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3428 and potentially 1.3495.

If we cannot close above 1.3295, we could see a move back to test 1.3261 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3228, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3161.


USD/JPY –  157.83 (-27 or -0.17%)

USDJPY moved lower this week, falling -0.17% and showing mild bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 10:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY)

Fri 10:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (JPY)

Tue 23:30 – Building Permits (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 01:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.22. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.62, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.01 and potentially 159.80.

If we cannot close above 157.44, we could see a move back to test 157.04 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.65, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.86.

COMMODITIES

GOLD –  4175  (-32 or -0.76%)

Gold moved lower this week, declining -0.76% and showing clear bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4185. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4196, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4206 and potentially 4227.

If we cannot close above 4165, we could see a move back to test 4154 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4144, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4123.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 81995 (-1780 or -2.12%)

Bitcoin moved sharply lower this week, falling -2.12% and showing strong bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 82200. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 82405, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 82610 and potentially 83020.

If we cannot close above 81790, we could see a move back to test 81585 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 81380, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 80970.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.