This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8441 (-139 or -1.62%)
AU200 dropped from 8580 to 8441 — a clear downside move showing moderate weakness in the index this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8462. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8483, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8504 and potentially 8546.
If we cannot close above 8419, we could see a move back to test 8398 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8377, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8335.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23217 (-215 or -0.92%)
DAX edges lower from 23,432 to 23,217 — mild weakness, but no major breakdown yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Jun)
Fri 17:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23,275. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23,334, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23,392 and potentially 23,507.
If we cannot close above 23,158, we could see a move back to test 23,100 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23,042, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 22,926.
US
S&P 500 – 5941 (-41 or -0.69%)
US500 dips slightly from 5982 to 5941 — mild pullback, but trend remains intact for now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/21)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5956. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5970, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5984 and potentially 6015.
If we cannot close above 5925, we could see a move back to test 5911 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5897, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5866.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6438 (-52 or -0.8%)
AUDUSD slips from 0.6490 to 0.6438 — a minor decline showing mild pressure on the Aussie dollar.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (May)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/21)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6454. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6470, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6485 and potentially 0.6518.
If we cannot close above 0.6423, we could see a move back to test 0.6407 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6391, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6358.
EUR/USD – 1.1488 (-44 or -0.38%)
EURUSD drifts lower from 1.1532 to 1.1488 — minor weakness, but no major shift in trend yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Jun)
Fri 17:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (May)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/21)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1517. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1546, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1575 and potentially 1.1631.
If we cannot close above 1.1458, we could see a move back to test 1.1429 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1400, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1344.
GBP/USD – 1.3421 (-126 or -0.93%)
GBPUSD slides from 1.3547 to 1.3421 — notable weekly drop indicating rising downside momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Current Account (Q1)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/21)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3454. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3488, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3521 and potentially 1.3589.
If we cannot close above 1.3387, we could see a move back to test 1.3354 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3320, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3252.
USD/JPY – 146.45 (+199 or +1.38%)
USDJPY surges from 144.46 to 146.45 — strong bullish move showing clear momentum behind the dollar.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Unemployment Rate (May)
Fri 09:50 – JPY Retail Sales YoY (May)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/21)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 146.81. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 147.14, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 147.47 and potentially 148.28.
If we cannot close above 146.08, we could see a move back to test 145.75 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 145.42, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 144.61.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3366 (-68 or -1.98%)
Gold drops sharply from 3434 to 3366 — strong downside move as sellers regain control of momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3374. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3383, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3391 and potentially 3408.
If we cannot close above 3357, we could see a move back to test 3348 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3340, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3323.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 100655 (-4640 or -4.41%)
Bitcoin falls hard from 105,295 to 100,655 — a strong bearish move as momentum shifts lower this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 100907. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 101160, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 101413 and potentially 101928.
If we cannot close above 100403, we could see a move back to test 100150 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 99897, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 99382.
