Market Brief


Are markets entering a higher-volatility regime, and could this pave the way for broader breakouts ahead?

Could rising commodities alongside equity resilience indicate upcoming breakout or heightened volatility?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

Market Brief

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  9047 (+108 or +1.21%)

The ASX pushed higher this week, gaining +1.21% and maintaining steady bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9070. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9092, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9115 and potentially 9160.

If we cannot close above 9024, we could see a move back to test 9002 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8979, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8934.

EUROPE

DAX (30) –25129 (+244 or +0.98%)

The DAX trended higher this week, rising +0.98% and extending its short-term bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Wed 18:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Fri 19:55 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25192. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25255, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25317 and potentially 25443.

If we cannot close above 25066, we could see a move back to test 25003 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24941, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24815.

US

S&P 500 – 6872 (+41 or +0.6%)

The SPX edged higher this week, posting a modest +0.60% gain and maintaining bullish bias.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:00 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6889. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6906, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6924 and potentially 6958.

If we cannot close above 6855, we could see a move back to test 6838 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6820, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6786.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7091 (+66 or +0.94%)

AUDUSD climbed +0.94% this week, showing steady upside momentum and short-term strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (AUD)

Tue 01:00 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6516. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6532, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6549 and potentially 0.6581.

If we cannot close above 0.6484, we could see a move back to test 0.6468 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6451, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6419.

EUR/USD – 1.1829 (+19 or +0.16%)

EURUSD advanced +0.16% this week, holding a mild bullish tone with limited upside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 20:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Wed 18:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Fri 19:55 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Tue 01:00 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1725. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1754, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1784 and potentially 1.1842.

If we cannot close above 1.1667, we could see a move back to test 1.1638 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1608, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1550.

GBP/USD – 1.3527 (-64 or -0.47%)

GBPUSD declined -0.47% this week, reflecting soft bearish pressure and weakening momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 18:00 – Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (GBP)

Fri 18:00 – Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (GBP)

Mon 22:00 – CBI Distributive Trades (GBP)

Tue 01:00 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3531. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3565, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3599 and potentially 1.3666.

If we cannot close above 1.3463, we could see a move back to test 1.3429 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3395, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3328.


USD/JPY – 154.10 (-353 or -2.24%)

USDJPY fell sharply this week, dropping -2.24% and showing strong bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 10:50 – Industrial Production MoM (JPY)

Fri 10:50 – Retail Sales YoY (JPY)

Thu 12:30 – BoJ Takada Speech (JPY)

Tue 01:00 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 147.84. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.21, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.58 and potentially 149.31.

If we cannot close above 147.10, we could see a move back to test 146.73 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.36, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.63.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 5137 (+157 or +3.15%)

Gold rallied strongly this week, surging +3.15% and showing powerful bullish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5150. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5163, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5176 and potentially 5201.

If we cannot close above 5124, we could see a move back to test 5111 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5098, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5073.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 67042 (-4263 or -5.98%)

BTC sold off heavily this week, plunging -5.98% and signaling strong bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 67210. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 67377, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 67545 and potentially 67880.

If we cannot close above 66874, we could see a move back to test 66707 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 66539, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 66204.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.