Market Brief


Is the strength in US technology and AI stocks now helping to stabilise broader global market sentiment?

Could this momentum support further upside across the SPX and DAX if risk appetite continues to improve?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8717  (+43 or +0.5%)

The ASX moved higher this week with a +0.50% gain, showing modest bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Thu 15:00 – RBA Gov Bullock Speech (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8739. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8761, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8782 and potentially 8826.

If we cannot close above 8695, we could see a move back to test 8673 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8652, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8608.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25108 (+63 or +0.25%)

The DAX edged higher this week with a +0.25% gain, showing steady bullish momentum and continued resilience.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25171. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25234, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25296 and potentially 25422.

If we cannot close above 25045, we could see a move back to test 24982 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24920, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24794.

US

S&P 500 – 7603 (+81 or +1.08%)

The SPX rallied higher this week with a +1.08% gain, showing solid bullish momentum and continued upside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7622. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7641, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7660 and potentially 7698.

If we cannot close above 7584, we could see a move back to test 7565 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7546, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7508.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7180 (+19 or +0.27%)

AUDUSD moved slightly higher this week with a +0.27% gain, showing mild bullish momentum and improving strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Thu 15:00 – RBA Gov Bullock Speech (AUD) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7198. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7216, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7234 and potentially 0.7270.

If we cannot close above 0.7162, we could see a move back to test 0.7144 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7126, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7090.

EUR/USD – 1.1643 (+7 or +0.06%)

EURUSD edged higher this week with a +0.06% rise, showing limited bullish momentum and a stable trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 16:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1672. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1701, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1730 and potentially 1.1789.

If we cannot close above 1.1614, we could see a move back to test 1.1585 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1556, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1497.

GBP/USD – 1.3453 (-26 or -0.19%)

GBPUSD drifted lower this week with a -0.19% loss, indicating mild bearish momentum and soft downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:30 – Mortgage Approvals (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Halifax House Price Index MoM (GBP)

Fri 18:30 – DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3487. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3520, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3554 and potentially 1.3621.

If we cannot close above 1.3419, we could see a move back to test 1.3386 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3352, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3285.


USD/JPY – 159.46 (+59 or +0.37%)

USDJPY moved higher this week with a +0.37% gain, showing modest bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 18:30 – BoJ Gov Ueda Speech (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Household Spending YoY (JPY)

Mon 09:50 – GDP Growth Annualized (JPY) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.86. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 160.26, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.66 and potentially 161.45.

If we cannot close above 159.06, we could see a move back to test 158.66 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.26, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 157.47.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4515 (-49 or -1.07%)

Gold fell lower this week with a -1.07% decline, showing clear bearish momentum and sustained downside pressure. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4526. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4538, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4549 and potentially 4571.

If we cannot close above 4504, we could see a move back to test 4492 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4481, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4459.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  73729 (-3241 or -4.21%)

Bitcoin dropped sharply this week with a -4.21% decline, showing strong bearish momentum and significant downside weakness. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 73913. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 74098, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 74282 and potentially 74651.

If we cannot close above 73545, we could see a move back to test 73360 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 73176, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 72807.

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