This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7292 (+141 or +1.97%)
The ASX has remained inside its current trading ranging, climbing nearly 2%.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth
Thur 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Thur 13:10 – AUD Gov Lowe Speech
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7292. Should this occur, a move above 7389 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7425 and 7497.
Failure to close above 7292 means a potential move into 7247. 7196 is the next support level down if 7112 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7093.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 15858 (+141 or +0.9%)
After a high volatility news week the DAX has ended the week up 0.9%.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade
Tue 18:00 – EUR PMI
Wed 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thu 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Change
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 15858. Should this occur, then 15953 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 16000 and 16300 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15858, we will look for a move into support at 15791. A strong break and close below this handle and 15600 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15396 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4520 (+111 or +2.52%)
The SPX has closed higher this week regaining some of its earlier losses in the previous month.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:45 – USD PMI
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4520. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4614. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4657 and 4700.
If we cannot hold above 4520, we could see this market move down into 4480 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4412. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4339.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6463 (+45 or +0.7%)
AUDUSD has closed up 0.7% this past week, with eyes now on the AUD Rate Decision.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth
Thur 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Thur 13:10 – AUD Gov Lowe Speech
Wed 23:45 – USD PMI
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6463. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6485. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6507. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6550 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6463 we could see a move down to 0.6426. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6377, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6327.
EUR/USD – 1.0778 (-22 or -0.2%)
With a week ending with big USD News on Friday, the EURUSD has lost its earlier gains during the week closing mostly flat.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade
Tue 18:00 – EUR PMI
Wed 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thu 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Change
Wed 23:45 – USD PMI
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0778. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.090. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.106 and 1.115.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.080, we will see a move into 1.077. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.072, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.071.
GBP/USD – 1.2601 (+6 or +0.05%)
GBPUSD has closed relatively flat this week and our levels remain the same.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – GBP Retail Sales
Tue 18:30 – GBP PMI
Wed 23:45 – USD PMI
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2579 before a break higher into 1.2659. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2724. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.2926 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2579, we will look for a move down to 1.2540. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2485 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2433.
USD/JPY – 146.12 (-36 or -0.25%)
Closing slightly lower this week, the USDJPY regained some earlier losses.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:45 – USD PMI
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 146.09. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 147.59, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.06 and potentially 148.92.
If we cannot close above 146.09, we could see a move back to test 144.79 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.95, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.98.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1945 (+30 or +1.57%)
GOLD is up 2 weeks in a row, will the momentum continue to new highs?
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1945. Should this occur we could see a move into 1981; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1988. If momentum is strong, then 2005 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1945, we can see a move down to 1926. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1892 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1866.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 25954 (-68 or -0.26%)
Bitcoin has seen a volatile few weeks with big bursts of power returning back to their starting points. What will the next Crypto catalyst be?
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 26000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 27000 before retesting 28000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 30000.
Failure to close above 26000 could see a move into 25000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 23000. A close below this level and 22000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
