This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8416 (+82 or +0.98%)
The AU200 shows a strong upward trend with a significant move, rising 82 points from 8334 to 8416 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Dec)
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI (Q4)
Wed 11:30 – AUD RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ (Q4)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8437. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8458, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8479 and potentially 8521.
If we cannot close above 8395, we could see a move back to test 8374 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8353, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8311.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 21372 (+498 or +2.39%)
The DE30 is showing a strong bullish trend, with a significant move higher of 498 points this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Q4)
Wed 19:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Thu 00:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 21425. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 21479, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 21533 and potentially 21639.
If we cannot close above 21319, we could see a move back to test 21265 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 21211, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 21105.
US
S&P 500 – 6016 (+28 or +0.47%)
The US500 is trending slightly higher this week, with a modest bullish move indicating a stable upward direction.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6031. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6046, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6061 and potentially 6089.
If we cannot close above 6001, we could see a move back to test 5986 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5971, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5943.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6271 (+80 or +1.29%)
AUDUSD has trended upward with a moderate 80-pip move, indicating steady bullish momentum in the past week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Dec)
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI (Q4)
Wed 11:30 – AUD RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ (Q4)
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6287. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6302, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6318 and potentially 0.6349.
If we cannot close above 0.6255, we could see a move back to test 0.6240 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6224, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6193.
EUR/USD – 1.0452 (+182 or +1.77%)
The EURUSD is trending strongly upwards with a significant move from 1.0270 to 1.0452, highlighting bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Q4)
Wed 19:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Thu 00:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0484. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0502, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0520 and potentially 1.0580.
If we cannot close above 1.0484, we could see a move back to test 1.0402 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0320, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0160.
GBP/USD – 1.2461 (+298 or +2.45%)
The GBPUSD is trending strongly upward with a significant move of 0.0298, indicating a solid bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 01:15 – GBP BoE Bailey Speech
Thu 20:30 – GBP Mortgage Lending (Dec)
Thu 20:30 – GBP Mortgage Approvals (Dec)
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2503. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2575, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2647 and potentially 1.2714.
If we cannot close above 1.2436, we could see a move back to test 1.2364 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2292, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2135.
USD/JPY – 155.34 (-106 or -0.68%)
The USDJPY has made a moderate move lower this week, showing a slight bearish trend with a notable decline.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:50 – JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wed 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Jan)
Thu 17:10 – JPY BoJ Himino Speech
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 155.92. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 156.49, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 156.96 and potentially 157.42.
If we cannot close above 154.76, we could see a move back to test 154.19 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 153.62, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 152.92.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2744 (+44 or +1.63%)
Gold is trending strongly upward with a solid 44-point increase, signaling a bullish momentum and potential for more upside.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2759. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2773, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2787 and potentially 2804.
If we cannot close above 2730, we could see a move back to test 2716 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2702, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2685.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 101588 (+140 or +0.14%)
Bitcoin is showing a moderate upward move, with a slight increase of 140, indicating a steady bullish trend.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 101863. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 102138, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 102413 and potentially 102985.
If we cannot close above 101313, we could see a move back to test 100838 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 100563, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 99891.
