This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8396 (-52 or -0.62%)
The AU200 shows a moderate bearish trend, with a decline of 52 points, indicating a steady downward movement this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Nov)
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8417. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8438, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8458 and potentially 8500.
If we cannot close above 8375, we could see a move back to test 8355 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8335, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8294.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 20381 (+956 or +4.92%)
The DAX30 is showing a strong upward trend, with a significant move higher from 19,425 to 20,381 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 00:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Fri 18:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Oct)
Mon 19:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 20431. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 20483, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 20534 and potentially 20635.
If we cannot close above 20331, we could see a move back to test 20279 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 20228, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 20127.
US
S&P 500 – 6085 (+92 or +1.54%)
The US500 shows a moderate upward trend, gaining 92 points this week, suggesting a steady move with potential momentum building.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/07)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6106. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6138, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6169 and potentially 6223.
If we cannot close above 6063, we could see a move back to test 6031 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6000, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5956.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6396 (-139 or -2.13%)
The AUDUSD is showing a strong bearish move, dropping significantly from 0.6535 to 0.6396 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Nov)
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/07)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6411. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6446, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6471 and potentially 0.6511.
If we cannot close above 0.6371, we could see a move back to test 0.6346 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6321, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6271.
EUR/USD – 1.0561 (+85 or +0.81%)
The EURUSD has shown a solid upward move, increasing by 0.0085, indicating bullish momentum with a moderate gain.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 00:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Fri 18:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Oct)
Mon 19:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/07)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0589. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0611, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0633 and potentially 1.0685.
If we cannot close above 1.0534, we could see a move back to test 1.0511 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0489, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0437.
GBP/USD – 1.2745 (+152 or +1.21%)
The GBPUSD shows a strong bullish trend with a notable 1.2% move higher this week, signaling momentum upwards.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:00 – GBP GDP MoM (Oct)
Fri 18:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (Oct)
Mon 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/07)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2785. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2815, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2835 and potentially 1.2880.
If we cannot close above 1.2705, we could see a move back to test 1.2695 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2670, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2625.
USD/JPY – 150.03 (-373 or -2.43%)
The USDJPY has experienced a strong bearish move, dropping significantly from 153.76 to 150.03 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/07)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Nov)
Mon 10:50 – JPY GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
Fri 10:50 – JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
Mon 10:50 – JPY Current Account (Oct)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 150.61. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 151.11, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 151.61 and potentially 152.53.
If we cannot close above 149.53, we could see a move back to test 149.03 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.53, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.61.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2632 (-69 or -2.55%)
Gold is experiencing a significant decline, dropping 69 points this week, indicating strong bearish momentum in the market.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2638. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2654, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2670 and potentially 2704.
If we cannot close above 2625, we could see a move back to test 2609 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2583, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2549.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 100040 (+2849 or +2.93%)
Bitcoin shows strong bullish momentum with a significant move from 97,191 to 100,040, indicating continued upward pressure.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 100,090. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 100,140, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 100,190 and potentially 100,240.
If we cannot close above 100,015, we could see a move back to test 100,040 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 100,015, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 99,990.
