This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7622 (-6 or -0.08%)
The AU200 chart is showing a slight downward trend, with a marginal decrease from 7628 to 7622 in a week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 8:45 – AUD Employment Change QoQ
Wed 8:45 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Wed 9:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7639. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7651, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7662 and potentially 7681.
If we cannot close above 7604, we could see a move back to test 7590 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7573, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7545.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18260(+438 or +2.46%)
The DAX chart is showing a strong upward trend, with a significant increase from 17822 to 18260 in a week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR CPI
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY
Tue 19:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate
Thu 18:00 – EUR Manufacturing PMI
Fri 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18306. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18392, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18478 and potentially 18603.
If we cannot close above 18215, we could see a move back to test 18129 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18044, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17843.
US
S&P 500 – 5114 (+127 or +2.55%)
The US500 chart is showing a strong upward trend, with a significant increase from 4987 to 5114 in a week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Wed 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5127. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5139, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5151 and potentially 5173.
If we cannot close above 5100, we could see a move back to test 5089 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5078, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5048.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6547 (+108 or +1.68%)
The AUDUSD chart is trending strongly upwards, with a notable increase from 0.6439 to 0.6547 within the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 8:45 – AUD Employment Change QoQ
Wed 8:45 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Wed 9:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Wed 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6563. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6591, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6619 and potentially 0.6684.
If we cannot close above 0.6532, we could see a move back to test 0.6504 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6476, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6411.
EUR/USD – 1.0708 (+45 or +0.42%)
The EURUSD chart is showing a moderate upward trend, with an increase from 1.0663 to 1.0708 within the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR CPI
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY
Tue 19:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate
Thu 18:00 – EUR Manufacturing PMI
Fri 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Wed 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0734. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0762, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0791 and potentially 1.0859.
If we cannot close above 1.0683, we could see a move back to test 1.0655 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0626, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0597.
GBP/USD – 1.2514 (+131 or +1.06%)
The GBPUSD chart is trending strongly upwards, with a notable increase from 1.2383 to 1.2514 within the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Wed 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2544. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2571, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2598 and potentially 1.2655.
If we cannot close above 1.2490, we could see a move back to test 1.2463 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2436, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2389.
USD/JPY – 158.29(+363 or +2.35%)
The USDJPY chart is trending strongly upwards, with a substantial increase from 154.66 to 158.29 within the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Wed 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.68. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.06, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.43 and potentially 160.35.
If we cannot close above 158.29, we could see a move back to test 157.91 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 157.54, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.61.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2327 (-56 or -2.35%)
The GOLD chart is trending weakly downwards, with a notable decrease from 2383 to 2327 within the week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2333. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2340, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2347 and potentially 2356.
If we cannot close above 2318, we could see a move back to test 2311 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2304, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2297.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 64941 (-1791 or -2.76%)
The Bitcoin chart is showing a weak downward trend, with a notable decrease from 64941 to 63150 within the week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 65106. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 65335, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 65563 and potentially 66178.
If we cannot close above 64716, we could see a move back to test 64487 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64259, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 63512.
