This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7970 (+120 or +1.51%)
The AU200 is trending upward with a strong move, rising significantly from 7970 to 8090 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul)
Fri 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8110. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8130, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8150 and potentially 8190.
If we cannot close above 8070, we could see a move back to test 8050 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8030, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7990.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18587 (+250 or +1.36%)
The DAX30 is showing a moderate upward trend with a solid gain from 18,337 to 18,587 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Aug)
Wed 16:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Thu 22:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18633. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18730, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18777 and potentially 18819.
If we cannot close above 18540, we could see a move back to test 18444 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18397, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18355.
US
S&P 500 – 5635 (+70 or +1.26%)
The US500 is trending strongly upward, surging from 5,565 to 5,635 this week with notable bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5658. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5688, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5706 and potentially 5729.
If we cannot close above 5613, we could see a move back to test 5585 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5566, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5540.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6776 (+104 or +1.56%)
The AUDUSD is strongly trending upwards, with a significant rise from 0.6672 to 0.6776 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul)
Fri 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
Mon 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6807. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6831, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6849 and potentially 0.6901.
If we cannot close above 0.6745, we could see a move back to test 0.6726 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6701, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6651.
EUR/USD – 1.1183 (+159 or +1.44%)
The EURUSD is trending strongly upwards, with a notable surge from 1.1024 to 1.1183 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Aug)
Wed 16:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Thu 22:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
Mon 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1205. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1271, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1337 and potentially 1.1408.
If we cannot close above 1.1161, we could see a move back to test 1.1084 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1007, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0946.
GBP/USD – 1.3200 (+256 or +1.98%)
The GBPUSD surged significantly this week, reflecting strong bullish momentum with a notable rise from 1.2945 to 1.3201.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3220. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3250, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3275 and potentially 1.3325.
If we cannot close above 1.3175, we could see a move back to test 1.3150 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3125, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3075.
USD/JPY – 143.97 (-392 or -2.65%)
The USDJPY has sharply declined, dropping from 147.92 to 144.00 this week, indicating a significant bearish trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Aug)
Mon 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.09. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.08, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 146.06 and potentially 148.87.
If we cannot close above 143.37, we could see a move back to test 142.38 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 141.39, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 139.60.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2510 (+3 or +0.12%)
The gold price shows a weak bullish trend with a minor rise. Watch for potential shifts in momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2512. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2529, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2546 and potentially 2576.
If we cannot close above 2501, we could see a move back to test 2484 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2467, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2437.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 63982 (+5602 or +9.6%)
Bitcoin’s surge from 58,380 to 63,982 signals a strong bullish trend with a significant and exciting upward momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 64,133. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 67,682, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 70,231 and potentially 80,477.
If we cannot close above 63,882, we could see a move back to test 60,582 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 57,083, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 50,837.
