This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7924 (+86 or +1.1%)
AU200 is trending higher with a solid +1.1% gain this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Australia Services PMI
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7944. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7964, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7984 and potentially 8023.
If we cannot close above 7904, we could see a move back to test 7884 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7864, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7825.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 22966 (-79 or -0.34%)
DAX30 dipped slightly this week, down 0.3%—a mild pullback, with no strong directional momentum yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Thu 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Feb)
Fri 19:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23023. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23080, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23137 and potentially 23252.
If we cannot close above 22909, we could see a move back to test 22852 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 22795, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 22680.
US
S&P 500 – 5693 (+86 or +1.53%)
US500 edged higher this week with a +1.5% gain—showing some upward movement and positive short-term momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wed 23:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Feb)
Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5707. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5721, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5735 and potentially 5764.
If we cannot close above 5678, we could see a move back to test 5664 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5650, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5621.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6281 (+53 or +0.85%)
AUDUSD saw a modest rise this week, gaining around 0.8%—showing some mild upward pressure in the short term.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Australia Services PMI
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb)
Tue 00:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wed 23:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Feb)
Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6297. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6312, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6327 and potentially 0.6360.
If we cannot close above 0.6265, we could see a move back to test 0.6250 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6235, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6202.
EUR/USD – 1.0818 (-64 or -0.59%)
EURUSD dipped this week, down around 0.6%—showing some downside pressure, though the move remains relatively modest.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Thu 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Feb)
Fri 19:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Mar)
Tue 00:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wed 23:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Feb)
Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0845. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0872, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0899 and potentially 1.0953.
If we cannot close above 1.0791, we could see a move back to test 1.0764 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0737, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0683.
GBP/USD – 1.2911 (-24 or -0.19%)
GBPUSD eased slightly this week, down about 0.2%—a relatively flat move with limited directional momentum for now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Wed 18:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)
Fri 18:00 – GBP Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Feb)
Tue 00:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wed 23:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Feb)
Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2943. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2975, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3007 and potentially 1.3072.
If we cannot close above 1.2878, we could see a move back to test 1.2846 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2814, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2749.
USD/JPY – 149.58 (+71 or +0.48%)
USDJPY ticked higher this week, gaining around 0.5%—a mild upward move with steady momentum for now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Tue 10:50 – JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Fri 10:50 – JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
Tue 00:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wed 23:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Feb)
Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.95. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.32, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.69 and potentially 151.45.
If we cannot close above 149.21, we could see a move back to test 148.84 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.47, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.71.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3022 (+37 or +1.24%)
XAUUSD moved higher this week, up about 1.2%—a steady climb as upward momentum continues to build.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3029. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3037, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3045 and potentially 3059.
If we cannot close above 3015, we could see a move back to test 3007 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2999, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2985.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 85392 (+1759 or +2.1%)
Bitcoin edged higher this week, up around 2%—a moderate gain as upward momentum continues to hold.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 85606. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 85819, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 86033 and potentially 86456.
If we cannot close above 85178, we could see a move back to test 84965 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 84751, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 84328.
