This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week. Currently Trade View is light Net Short.
AUSTRALASIAN SESSION
ASX – 4997
The ASX has bounced off 4902 and reversed a down move with some strength. If the move up continues we see 5083 and 5126 as being important levels before the up move confirms itself as the start of a new rally.
If this move slows down at any point before breaking 5126, we could see a reversal back down and test 4902 once again. If this level is broken with a solid bar then 4719 is a good level to look for.
EUROPEAN SESSION
FTSE – 6398
The FTSE broke 6307 then bounced back through it, but it’s looking like it wants to move back up towards it highs. For the up move to continue we would like to see short term resistance of 6437 broken before engaging on the long side again.
We are still cautious with the FTSE as it is creating lower lows and lower highs so a strong break back below 6307 could see a short term level of 6175 reached before 6079.
DAX – 7775
The DAX reached a low of 7606, just short of one of our short term targets of 7586, and then bounced back up.
The DAX is now sitting near 7813 and 7910 which both need to be broken if the up move is to continue and move towards 8006.
We will monitor the level of 7548 which needs to be broken before further down moves can play out.
CAC – 3748
The CAC attempted to go through 3792 again but closed lower. Even though it hasn’t broke 3792, the current move has started the process, and if it finds legs to break through it with vigour, then it could reverse the longer downward move and start an up-trend.
Two shorter term levels that we are watching are 3779 on the upside and 3733 on the way down. If the CAC is to have some movement this week, then one of these two levels needs to be broken well.
US SESSION
SNP – 1587
The SNP reached a high of 1597, coming in at only a few points from the all important round figure of 1600, an all important psychological level. The SNP is half way through its up move and any bounce through 1600 could see 1607 reached.
It’s worth mentioning again that US treasuries bounced off 14600 and made another move past 14700. We will be watching these levels again to see who leads this market.
If the current up move slows down and reverses direction, then our short term target will be 1536 before heading down to 1500.
NASDAQ – 2852
The NASDAQ is aiming for 2875 after breaking through 2828 with a strong bar. If it is to break 2875 then it will need to do it soon and with real strength, otherwise it could prove to be a very difficult level.
If 2875 proves difficult to break then we could see it come back to 2807 before trying its luck at breaking 2783 again.
FX MARKETS
AUD.USD – 10499
The AUD needed to break 10445 and it did with a very strong bar up reaching our target of 10554 with a high of 10582.
Our previously mentioned levels have proven difficult to break on first attempts, so we will be looking for the AUD to either take control on the upside with a solid break through 10554 or head back down toward 10445 where it should find some support.
If this level doesn’t hold then the AUD could find support at an old level of 10353 which was used as a stepping ground to move towards 10554.
EUR.USD – 13110
The EUR has now reached our target of 13083 by closing at 13110. FICM has also indicated a slowdown in the current up move and this has come at a break of a potential resistance level.
If this up move is to make any real attempt at 13285 then it needs to do it early otherwise we might see a side-ways move until it finds strength to move back up.
If 13083 proves to be a strong level of resistance then a move back down towards 12928 could be possible. We will be watching this carefully throughout the week.
GBP.USD – 15339
We are at the same levels as last week and sitting in the middle of our potential resistance area between 15324 – 15352. For 15808 to be reached it really needs to break free from this range and make a real effort with some long bars up.
Otherwise a move back down towards 15185 could occur. Break 15185 and another leg down could be possible for the GBP.
USD.JPY – 9833
The JPY reached a high of 9994, only 6 points shy of 100, and if traders didn’t take their profits around this level then there will be another chance if 9963 is broken on the upside.
In the short term we see some potential resistance at 9897 which if broken could create a side-ways move until 9963
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1482
The big down moves in GOLD have followed and they are early in the move which is concerning for a near term support level of 1460. If these substantial moves continue then we will not even attempt to suggest any levels on the down side.
If 1460 holds then we might see a bounce but too early to call. Anything could happen so traders need to be quick on their feet and think quickly.
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 9083
LIGHT CRUDE has come close to our target level of 9018 with a low of 9027. Further aggressive moves down could see 8774 before finding some support.
If it does bounce off these levels then it could find potential resistance at 9254 and 9347.
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