This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7877 (-47 or -0.59%)
AU200 trending lower this week — moderate pullback of 47 points suggests slight weakness after recent highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Feb)
Tue 04:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 00:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7896. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7916, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7936 and potentially 7975.
If we cannot close above 7857, we could see a move back to test 7837 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7817, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7777.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 22420 (-546 or -2.38%)
DAX30 showing strong downside momentum — sharp 546-point drop signals notable weakness and increased selling pressure this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 12:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Tue 08:00 – EUR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Thu 07:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 22476. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 22532, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 22588 and potentially 22700.
If we cannot close above 22364, we could see a move back to test 22308 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 22252, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 22140.
US
S&P 500 – 5544 (-149 or -2.62%)
US500 posts a sharp drop — 149-point slide signals strong downside pressure and a potential shift in short-term sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Wed 12:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Mar)
Fri 12:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5558. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5572, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5586 and potentially 5613.
If we cannot close above 5530, we could see a move back to test 5516 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5502, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5475.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6278 (-3 or -0.05%)
AUDUSD remains flat — minimal 3 pip decline shows low volatility and indecision, with no clear directional bias this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Feb)
Tue 04:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 00:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (Feb)
Tue 14:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Wed 12:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Mar)
Fri 12:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6294. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6309, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6324 and potentially 0.6356.
If we cannot close above 0.6262, we could see a move back to test 0.6247 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6232, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6200.
EUR/USD – 1.0815 (-3 or -0.03%)
EURUSD virtually unchanged — tiny 3 pip dip signals flat momentum and indecision, with no meaningful directional shift this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 12:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Tue 08:00 – EUR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Thu 07:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
Tue 14:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Wed 12:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Mar)
Fri 12:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0842. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0869, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0896 and potentially 1.0950.
If we cannot close above 1.0788, we could see a move back to test 1.0761 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0734, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0680.
GBP/USD – 1.2933 (+22 or +0.17%)
GBPUSD edges higher — modest 22 pip gain reflects slight bullish sentiment, but overall trend remains relatively stable this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 08:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Thu 08:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
Fri 08:30 – GBP S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar)
Tue 14:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Wed 12:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Mar)
Fri 12:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2965. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2998, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3031 and potentially 1.3094.
If we cannot close above 1.2901, we could see a move back to test 1.2868 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2835, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2772.
USD/JPY – 149.37 (-21 or -0.14%)
USDJPY drifts slightly lower — mild 21 pip decline suggests range-bound trading with no strong directional conviction this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sun 23:50 – JPY Retail Sales YoY (Feb)
Mon 23:50 – JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
Tue 00:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Tue 14:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Wed 12:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Mar)
Fri 12:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.74. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.21, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.68 and potentially 151.24.
If we cannot close above 148.99, we could see a move back to test 148.52 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.05, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.49.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3089 (+67 or +2.22%)
Gold surges higher — powerful $67 rally signals strong bullish momentum and renewed investor demand heading into the new week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3096. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3104, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3111 and potentially 3127.
If we cannot close above 3081, we could see a move back to test 3073 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3066, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3050.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 82057 (-3335 or -3.91%)
Bitcoin pulls back sharply — $3,335 drop signals notable weakness after recent highs, with sellers regaining short-term control.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 82262. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 82467, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 82672 and potentially 83082.
If we cannot close above 81852, we could see a move back to test 81647 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 81442, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 81032.
