This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7851 (+59 or +0.76%)
The AU200 is trending upward with a solid gain this week, moving from 7792 to 7851, a strong bullish move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Aug)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jul)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7870. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7890, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7910 and potentially 7949.
If we cannot close above 7831, we could see a move back to test 7812 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7792, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7752.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 17766 (+49 or +0.28%)
The DAX30 shows a significant downward trend, dropping 786 points this week, indicating a strong bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug)
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q2)
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change QoQ (Q2)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17810. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17854, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17898 and potentially 17987.
If we cannot close above 17722, we could see a move back to test 17678 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 17633, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17544.
US
S&P 500 – 5348 (+46 or +0.87%)
The US500 shows a slight upward trend, gaining 46 points this week, indicating a moderate bullish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD PPI MoM (Jul)
Wed 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5370. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5392, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5413 and potentially 5461.
If we cannot close above 5325, we could see a move back to test 5303 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5281, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5234.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6567 (+57 or +0.88%)
The AUDUSD is trending upward with a solid gain from 0.6510 to 0.6567, indicating a strong bullish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Aug)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jul)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
Tue 22:30 – USD PPI MoM (Jul)
Wed 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6595. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6618, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6639 and potentially 0.6684.
If we cannot close above 0.6540, we could see a move back to test 0.6521 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6500, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6455.
EUR/USD – 1.0913 (+7 or +0.06%)
The EURUSD shows a slight upward trend, gaining 7 points this week, indicating a weak but positive movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug)
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q2)
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change QoQ (Q2)
Tue 22:30 – USD PPI MoM (Jul)
Wed 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0934. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0969, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0990 and potentially 1.1038.
If we cannot close above 1.0893, we could see a move back to test 1.0870 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0849, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0789.
GBP/USD – 1.2750 (-41 or -0.32%)
The GBPUSD shows a significant downward trend, dropping 41 points this week, indicating a strong bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:00 – GBP Employment Change (Jun)
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 16:00 – GBP GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Tue 22:30 – USD PPI MoM (Jul)
Wed 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2781. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2800, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2826 and potentially 1.2875.
If we cannot close above 1.2724, we could see a move back to test 1.2705 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2680, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2631.
USD/JPY – 146.98 (+92 or +0.63%)
The USDJPY shows a strong upward trend, gaining 92 points this week, indicating a robust bullish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 09:50 – JPY GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Tue 22:30 – USD PPI MoM (Jul)
Wed 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 147.42. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.49, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 149.28 and potentially 151.22.
If we cannot close above 146.55, we could see a move back to test 146.00 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 145.22, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 144.03.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2428 (-15 or -0.61%)
Gold shows a notable downward trend, dropping 15 points this week, indicating a moderate bearish movement.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2429. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2436, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2444 and potentially 2474.
If we cannot close above 2424, we could see a move back to test 2418 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2410, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2390.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 58737 (+343 or +0.59%)
The Bitcoin chart shows a strong upward trend, rising 343 points this week, indicating robust bullish momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 59,063. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 61,044, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 62,524 and potentially 66,432.
If we cannot close above 58,938, we could see a move back to test 56,957 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 54,986, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 49,078.
